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Global display panel shipments reached 162 million units in 2020, up 12.9 percent year on year. In the Internet + epidemic era, with the rapid penetration of digitalization into people's life, study and work of each scene, PC demand has become a new rigid demand. This change will become a new potential energy for the development of the global display market in 2021. Under the action of this potential energy, the upgrade and differentiation of the panel market will also be displayed at the same time. Based on this, Sigmaintell IT research team analyzes the global display panel market trends in 2021 as follows:

Potential energy article

Trend 1: the change of user habits builds the potential energy of display panel demand.

According to Sigmaintell's consumer research on PC users, the habits of Digital users in China are changing in the wake of the pandemic. The changes related to monitor usage habits are mainly reflected in the increased demand for multi-screen interaction between monitors and laptops. Before the epidemic, the proportion of direct interaction between monitor and notebook rose to 31% after the epidemic. In overseas markets, an increasing number of respondents said they are increasingly using a monitor as a secondary screen to connect directly to a Chromebook or laptop while studying or working at home to improve their experience or relieve fatigue. The increase in this ratio indicates that the changes in consumption infrastructure or consumption habits described above are expanding display usage scenarios and creating potential for demand growth.

Trend 2: The scale of potential support for demand continues to grow, but the growth rate drops significantly.

In the past year and more, the epidemic prevention has become a normal state, and people have rapidly built a new computer mode of display in their work, study and life. The stickiness of human-machine relationship and the scenes, frequency, validity and refinement of human-machine interaction have all been changed. This change in consumption infrastructure will present an irreversible trend. Based on this, Sigmaintell further forecasts that global display panel shipments will reach 166 million units in 2021, a slight growth of 2.5% year-on-year.

However, from the perspective of the market development rhythm, the market seasonal index will still be affected by the epidemic situation and deviate from the normal year. Due to the continuation of the epidemic abroad and the high demand for replenishment inventory of channels and brands at the end of 2020, the overall shipment volume in the first half of 2021 is expected to maintain a high year-on-year growth trend. In the second half of the year, as the rigid demand for machines gradually enters the saturation stage, the overall demand will stabilize and fall due to the influence of epidemic mitigation factors.

Competition in the article

Trend 3: panel manufacturer strategy differentiates, competitive territory will produce great change.

Compared with other application markets, the display panel market is also facing high demand and tight supply, but what is special is the drastic change in the competitive landscape, namely, the complete withdrawal of Samsung Display (SDC). According to Sigmaintell, Samsung had a 12% share of the global display market in 2020 and shipped nearly 20 million units. More importantly, it holds a significant position in esports and curved surfaces with 38% and 61% share respectively. Samsung Display will officially stop supplying the device in the first quarter of 2021. For most of the major brands, the supply side contraction will be significant. At the same time, other panel manufacturers have also developed their own strategy and positioning strategies.

In terms of BOE, as the leading manufacturer in the field of display panel, its market position will be significantly improved after the acquisition of CEC Panda. It is estimated that its combined market share will reach 33% in 2021, 7 percentage points higher than that in 2020. For BOE, however, increasing market share is only one aspect of its competitive strategy. Sigmaintell expects Samsung Display to quickly take more market share in value-added segments such as esports and high resolution, and expand the competitive edge of IPS in the mid - and high-end market, as part of its 2021 expansion path.

AUO, as the only major supplier in the global display panel field with TN, IPS, VA, plane and surface complete product lines, AUO has strong cooperation with major brands in the commercial and consumer markets, and also plays a decisive leadership role in e-sports, surface and other market segments. In the withdrawal of Samsung Display, AU will be a direct beneficiary. Therefore, AU also actively promote display capacity. It is estimated that AU will gain 17% market share in the total display panel market in 2021, up 1 percentage point compared with 2020.

LG Display (LGD) has shut down production of 8.5-generation LCD TVS in South Korea, but its LCD Monitor production is expanding steadily, showing that it is also actively seeking alternative market opportunities. In the display market, LG Display mainly focuses on the middle and high end product lines of IPS technology, and its cooperative customers are mainly head brands. Increasing market share through strengthening supply and cost competitiveness is part of LG's dual-track strategy in large-size LCDS. Its market share is expected to remain at around 22% in 2021.

Innolux is actively expanding IPS production capacity through production line transformation, but IT is difficult to balance the capacity allocation of different applications in the face of high IT demand. Innolux's display supply priority is expected to decline in 2021, resulting in a slight decline in its overall market share.

In 2021, TCL Huaxing (CSOT) and HKC will be expected by manufacturers of complete machines. In the face of rising demand and surging alternative opportunities, both have made aggressive expansion plans, but how to mobilize resources to achieve the implementation is the key. Sigmaintell forecasts that TCL Huaxing and Huike will gain a market share of about 15 per cent in 2021.

Trend 4: Display panel supply will be determined by driver IC supply.

According to Sigmaintell's forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020, demand will be driven by a growing supply impact, particularly in the display panel market. Due to the undersupply of drive IC and the impact of Samsung SDC withdrawal, Sigmaintell estimates that the global display panel supply in the first quarter of 2021 will decline 7.1% quarter-on-quarter to 40.6 million units. However, due to the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain during the same period last year, the base was low and the year-on-year growth was still substantial.

The current contradiction between 8-inch wafer demand surge and capacity expansion is very prominent, 12-inch wafer manufacturers also face uncertainty on the strategy of display driver IC, the global supply of display driver IC in 2021 is still challenging. Driven BY the IC supply chain situation is different, the application of various manufacturers of the market influence is not the same, but the impact of the drive IC is really inhibit the supply of panel, and further aggravate the panel supply and demand tension. (See Driver IC Thematic Report "Thematic Analysis: Research Report on Global Display Panel Driver IC Market and Technology Trends")

Trend 5: Tight supply and demand for display panels through 2Q 2021.

According to the calculation of Sigmaintell supply and demand model, affected by the above supply and demand and other aspects, the global display panel supply and demand ratio in the first quarter of 2021 is 1.5% (supply and demand balance value of 5%), showing an obvious shortage. The second quarter is expected to drive IC supply will not be able to get significant relief, even if the demand has slowed, the tight supply situation will continue for some time.

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Trend 6: The size structure will accelerate the upgrade, and the average size will hit a new high.

The display market is divided into consumer market and commercial market. Under the influence of new rigid demand and changing consumer habits, the demand of commercial market is depressed, and the consumer market has become the driving force of demand growth. The direct impact of the growth of the consumption market is to promote the upgrading of the size structure in addition to the growth of the size.

In the product structure of 2020, as the entry level of the consumer market, 23.8 inches became the biggest winner, with the shipment scale exceeding 50 million pieces, up 45% year on year. Driven by consumer demand, especially e-sports market demand, 27-inch as the main size of e-sports market increased by 65% year on year and exceeded 21.5 inches, becoming the second largest single size in the display panel market after 23.8 inches. And net cafe, video and audio entertainment market main 31.5-34 inches, also achieved 44% growth. By contrast, shipments of smaller pieces under 23.8 inches fell 19% year over year, bringing the market size to within 60 million.

The upgrade of the above size structure significantly pulled the growth of the average size of the display panel market, and then formed a significant consumption of panel capacity, which is also a rare situation in the display panel market for many years. In 2020, the average size of the global display panel market increased by 0.7 inch year on year, and the growth in overlay size and display panel shipment area consumed about 55K/M more G8.5 generation capacity. We expect this trend to continue through 2021.

Trend 7: IPS advances actively, TN declines homeward, and VA surface faces growth challenges.

IPS has been competing with TN in the commercial market for many years, and IPS penetration has only been growing slowly. However, this trend will accelerate in 2021. IPS will accelerate the replacement of TN in the commercial market.

In the consumer market, VA camp preempt and actively promoted in the curved surface and e-sports market, attracting the attention and resource investment of major brands in the consumer market and cultivating the recognition of the mass consumer group. With the continuous growth of the consumer market in recent years, more and more brands pay more attention to consumer product lines, which is bound to face the choice of resources, VA curved surface or IPS?

With the strategic withdrawal of SDC, the leading MANUFACTURER of VA technology, the strategy of downstream brand customers gradually wavered or even changed. More brand customers hope to avoid risks by expanding IPS product lines. Meanwhile, IPS manufacturers have made positive progress in the market performance in the second half of 2020 by upgrading key technical indicators and actively expanding supply with innovative products such as fast LCD and Nano IPS.

The pressure on VA surfaces is expected to continue in 2021 under the influence of IC supply. Improving the product performance of curved VA and expanding production capacity to supplement or even expand supply are all practical challenges facing THE VA curved camp.

According to Sigmaintell, the global shipments of IPS display panels exceeded 95 million in 2020, with a market penetration rate of more than 60%. It is expected that the shipments will increase to more than 100 million in 2021. TN's market penetration will fall sharply and fall below 15% for the first time. The VA penetration rate is expected to stabilize at around 17% in 2021 after a significant increase in 2020.

Trend 8: High resolution and high refresh rate upgrade line.

Associated with the size structure are high resolution (QHD+) and high refresh rate (100Hz+). Over the past three years, high refresh rates have gradually taken root, driven by the continued growth of the esports market. Sigmaintell believes that in the future, high refresh rate display will no longer be limited to esports display category, but as a high-performance display will be expanded to daily office, professional office and other application scenarios, the display market will show a trend of high refresh rate and high resolution growth together. We forecast that the global market size of high-refresh display panels will reach 24.7 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. The market for high-resolution display panels reached 25.4 million units, up 25.8 percent year on year.